ARBITRAGE BOUNDS FOR PRICES OF WEIGHTED VARIANCE SWAPS

We develop a theory of robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap given market prices for a finite number of co‐maturing put options. We assume the put option prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no‐arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super‐ and sub‐replicating strategies that enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model‐free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi‐infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model‐independent and probability‐free setup. In particular, we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the “log contract” and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take the form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk‐neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.     

Factors of trade in Europe

We analyze how a set of determinants affect trade among European countries over the period 1992–2008. The factors encompass variables from the areas of geography, culture, institutions, infrastructure, and trade direction. Trade is analyzed for four types of goods: primary goods, parts and components, capital goods, and consumer goods. For each type of good we also distinguish its definition in terms of flows, intensive margin, and extensive margin. Methodologically, we first derive country-pair fixed effects over all possible pairs of export–import partners, and in the second stage we relate fixed effects with a set of influential factors. We show (i) the intuitive and varying effects of geographical, cultural, and institutional factors; (ii) the beneficial effects of soft and hard infrastructure; and (iii) the key importance of trade between old and new EU members.     

Remittance,Institutions and Investment Volatility Interactions: An Intercontinental Analysis

Generating massive investment for growth and development has been one of the main policy goals of most economies around the globe. Countries, most especially developing ones, are highly susceptible to investment volatility owing largely to the fragile nature of their economies as well as weaknesses in terms of dysfunctional institutions. Therefore, sound economic management suggests the need to better understand possible sources for mitigating the adverse effects of investment volatility. Remittances have been identified as important capital flows which do a good job of dousing macroeconomic volatilities. It is on this basis that the study sought to uncover the causal relationship between remittances and investment volatility via the intermediating role of institutions. Using a panel of 70 countries and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, three insightful outcomes come to the fore. First, remittances played countercyclical roles across the estimated regressions. Second, institutional quality had no significant role in mitigating investment volatility and lastly, the interactive terms of both remittances and institutions significantly mitigated the negative impacts of investment volatility with the exception of the political component of the institutional architecture. Policy suggestions are drawn based on our results.     

From a System of National Accounts to a Process of National Wellbeing Accounting

There are repeated calls to go ‘Beyond GDP’, for measures of wellbeing and progress in addition to those that the System of National Accounts (SNA) is designed to provide. We identify key issues that can help build on the rigour of SNA whilst fitting the measurement of economic performance within a broader assessment of national wellbeing and progress. Such drivers are already leading to a proliferation of indicators and accounts, for example in the development of non‐monetary measures of natural resources, but there are significant measurement challenges, not least the question of whether a single, overall measure or index of wellbeing is valid. But the challenge of measurement, per se, is one thing: in our view, a more critical issue is whether the measures will actually be used. We propose a dynamic and multi‐staged approach for developing SNA, embracing the production and use of measures. This would start by identifying user requirements for wider measures, to provide the basis for national and cross‐national developments in well‐being accounting. We envisage greater branding and marketing of national well‐being concepts to promote measures and support their use. We call for outreach by producers, so that there is dialogue about the development and use of measures.     

西方“前近代经济-社会史”的理论范式及其“中国化”：一个历史与逻辑的述评框架

关于“前近代经济-社会史”的研究，西方学界首开其端，形成若干种流派。进入中国以后，与本土问题相结合，表现更加多样。本文根据语义分析学中“同一‘能指’背后的‘所指转换’无限可能，以及在‘能指冲突’中理解‘所指’”的方法，一方面将各流派对前近代经济社会结构的理解作为一个维度，形成“共同体本位”与“个体本位”之事实差异；另一方面，将各流派对自由的态度作为一个维度，形成“对自由的认同”与“对反自由的认同”之价值差异。两维交叉，构成一个历史与逻辑的述评框架，从中或许可以窥见各派之间的共同点与分歧所在。     

简论司法舆情和司法独立的平衡--药家鑫案的制度反思

社会舆论对司法活动给予了充分关注。在监督司法活动的同时，社会舆论也对司法独立产生了严重的冲击。在借鉴美国谢泼德案件意义的基础上，着力探讨缓解社会舆论对审判活动造成冲击的途径和方法。     

冷链物流“最后一公里”快速配送方法研究

冷链物流“最后一公里”的品质配送，对于实现全程冷链以及提升企业形象有着重要的意义。为了实现冷链物流的快速配送，本文提出了一种基于复杂网络的“最后一公里”物流配送区域划分方法。该方法构建了现实生活中物流配送的复杂网络模型，然后基于两阶段的LinkRank社区发现算法实现了物流配送区域的划分，最后建立了一套完善的物流配送体系。该体系明确了配送中转站以及配送点所覆盖的区域，这些区域所包含的社区物流关系紧密、易于配送。本文通过案例研究，验证了方法的有效性，最终方案可有效提高“最后一公里”的配送效率和降低物流成本。     

Employment and absenteeism in working-age persons with multiple sclerosis

Aims: To better understand the impact of the clinical course of multiple sclerosis (MS) and disability on employment, absenteeism, and related factors.

Materials and methods: This study included respondents to the North American Research Committee on Multiple Sclerosis Registry spring 2015 update survey who were US or Canadian residents, aged 18–65 years and reported having relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS), or primary progressive MS (PPMS). The RRMS and SPMS participants were combined to form the relapsing-onset MS (RMS) group and compared with the PPMS group regarding employment status, absenteeism, and disability. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between employment-related outcomes and factors that may affect these relationships.

Results: Of the 8004 survey respondents, 5887 (73.6%) were 18–65 years of age. The PPMS group (n?=?344) had a higher proportion of males and older mean age at the time of the survey and at time of diagnosis than the RMS group (n?=?4829). Female sex, age, age at diagnosis, cognitive and hand function impairment, fatigue, higher disability levels, ≥3 comorbidities, and a diagnosis of PPMS were associated with not working. After adjustment for disability, the employed PPMS sub-group reported similar levels of absenteeism to the employed RMS sub-group.

Limitations: Limitations of the study include self-report of information and the possibility that participants may not fully represent the working-age MS population.

Conclusions: In MS, employment status and absenteeism are negatively affected by disability, cognitive impairment, and fatigue. These findings underscore the need for therapies that prevent disability progression and other symptoms that negatively affect productivity in persons with MS to enable them to persist in the workforce.     

Unraveling public support for casino gaming: The case of a casino referendum in Penghu

By integrating the social exchange theory (SET) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB), this study unravels the factors associated with residents’ intention to support casino gaming development in Penghu in future referenda. Residents’ attitudes toward casino gaming development in their community were examined in the SET framework while their intention to support such development was investigated in the TPB framework. Despite that partisan difference did not have a significant interaction with TPB variables, past behavior exerted moderating effects determining residents’ intention to support casino gaming development through two TPB variables: subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. Implications are provided.

Abbreviations: ATTU: attitude; DPP: Democratic Progress Party; ECOI: perceived economic impact; ENVI: perceived environmental impact; INT: intention to support casino gaming development in future referenda; KMT: Kuomingtang; PBC: perceived behavioral control; PPB: perceived personal benefit; SET: social exchange theory; SN: subjective norms; SOCI: perceived social impact; TPB: theory of planned behavior     

孔子人性论浅探

孔子虽然没有像孟子和苟子等人一样明确地提出人性论，但是却有许多直接和间接关于人性的论述。孔子的人性论从人情出发，对人性的弱点有着独到的观察，注重人性的经验论考察，充满人性关怀。孔子的人性论对当今社会治理仍有积极的借鉴意义。